Synopsis:
Worldwide experience and data shows that TFR (Total Fertility Rate – average number of children born per woman of child bearing age) declines with economic well-being and a certain minimum level of “awareness” (children are not “God’s gift” – rather the result of unprotected copulation). TFR should be used to project the popluation growth / decline of a group and NOT religion or practices of polygamy etc. followed by its people. The TFR of Muslims in India is higher than that of Hindus today, however, it is declining faster than that of Hindus as the poorer Muslim group is lifted out of poverty. If policies that impinge on economic well-being of groups are non-discriminatory then it is safe to assume that before long, the TFRs of Hindus and Mulims will level up – there is nothing to show that in future, Hindus’ TFR will be lower than that of Muslims. Evidence: The Muslim country – UAE’s TFR today is 1.5 (lower than 1.6 which is the TFR of few “well-off” States of India – TN, AP, HP, J&K – before the State was broken up) and Yemen’s TFR of 3.8 is close to Bihar’s TFR, the poorest State – which has TFR of 3.7). In all likelihood the share of Muslims population in India will peak at 18% and then stay level; in 1951 this share was 10% – it increased due to greater poverty of the Muslims group – not because of religious practices, or some conspiracy; Past Muslim immigrants contributed marginally to the risen share (legal or illegal immigrants “claimed to be” between 4 million and 20 million is about 0.4% to 2% of India’s population). [The latest TFR figures for Indian States are lower than quoted above – which are presented for comparison, for e.g. Bihar’s TFR has fallen to 3].
There are lot of misconceptions people have on the subject of “population explosion” and “Hindu vs Muslim Population growth”. This is due to both misinformation and disinformation. The world is changing too fast for many people. Most people are not up to speed with latest data and research, it is inevitable they reach wrong conclusions due to obsolete understanding or worldview they carry in their head (misinformation) or due to agenda driven propaganda (disinformation).
Then there are ignorant (or daft) people who cannot understand that numbers of men and women are nearly always equal and that children are born to women and not men, therefore, population growth should be projected based on average number of children born per woman and not on how many average children a subset of polygamous men has fathered.
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Modi-Shah and Sangh Parivar have run a successful (brain-washing) campaign to frighten Hindus that Muslims will soon overrun them in India and the Muslims are working through a love jihad conspiracy to establish a Muslim Caliphate to rule the world. Most Bhakts have closed their minds to evidence and they are convinced that official statistics are wrong or the data is twisted to hide the rising population of Muslims. These folks believe that in India the proportion of Muslim population has risen manifold since independence (actually the Muslim population proportion has increased from 10% in 1951 – first census – to ~14.2% in 2011 – last census – https://shorturl.at/bwANS ) and now the Muslims are reproducing like rabbits who typically have 5 wives and 25 kids (“ham panch hamare pachhees” – this was Modi’s jibe at Muslims in 2002 when he asked rhetorically why should Government provide relief to Muslim rehabilitation camps set up after the communal riots) or they are converting Hindu girls through love jihad or they are infiltrating through borders (Amit Shah called them “termites” that are in need of extermination). All these beliefs are reinforced through a tsunami of propaganda and fake videos and narratives on social media. As a result even educated Hindus refuse to see the evidence to the contrary.
First lets understand there is no population explosion any longer in ALMOST ALL REGIONS OF THE WORLD. After we have understood the underlying reasons for the phenomenon of population explosion that occurred only in the last couple centuries, we will examine the question of population growth of different groups within a region – groups defined by income levels and groups defined by religion or culture.
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The misinformation of population explosion can be quickly dispelled by watching three video clips of late Dr. Hans Rosling in this note (please go through this note and the short video clips before reading further) :
Dr. Rosling was one the world’s top presenters (if you like what he says, buy his book – Factfulness).
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Now lets turn our attention to India and the differences between the factors that determine the population growth of Hindus and Muslims. Here one has to get over a lot of disinformation.
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In 1951 the total population of India was 361 Million and in 2020 it grew to 1,380 Million.
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As Muslims population grew 485% vs Hindus 259% between 1951 and 2020, many people and most of right wingers, led by BJP and RSS leaders, ask isn’t it obvious, “Muslims will overrun Hindus?”
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In 1951, of the total population, Muslims constituted 10% and Hindus 84%. In 2020 the Muslims share was estimated to have risen to 15% and Hindus share fell to 79%. So can’t we extrapolate the past trend and conclude that eventually Muslims will be majority and Hindus a minority?
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Population projections should not be made without looking at the underlying factors.
Population growth of a community (or a group) is a function of multiple factors
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Total Fertility Rate (TFR),
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Longevity (infant mortality affects this)
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Migration i.e. immigration (entering) and emigration (leaving)
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Conversion (changing over from one group to another).
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If between two groups, Longevity, Migration and Conversion remain similar or vary marginally, then the population growth difference between the two groups can be accounted by differences in TFR ONLY. Lets look at the last three factors first, before we turn our attention to TFR of Hindus and Muslims.
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LONGEVITY, MIGRATION and CONVERSION
In India, the longevity and migration differences between Hindus and Muslims can be assumed to be negligible – whatever migration happened in the past has been accounted in the census. There were claims of 4 to 20 million illegal migrants from Bangladesh – recent surveys revealed less than 2 million (i.e. less than 0.2% of India’s population); going forward the numbers of Muslims trying to illegally enter Bangladesh exceeds the number in the reverse direction! References at : The story of Muslim settlers from across the border;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_India No one has reported any authoritative data of increasing migration of Muslims or increasing longevity of Muslims which is greater than Hindus – so these factors cease to have any influence on future population projections. However, about the figures of continuing conversion, into or out of the two religions, there are lot of controversies but little data. There is one survey conducted by PEW Research in 2020 and it concludes that there is negligible conversion, if at all; there is a net gain of people converting into Hinduism (0.8% addition and 0.7% reduction of Hindu population due to religious conversions). [The relevant portions of the report are copied below (so you may skip reading the full 2020 Pew Research Center Survey or go through it later).]
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In a 2020 Pew Research Center survey of nearly 30,000 adults across India, very few indicated they had switched religions since childhood. Among adults who say they were raised as Hindus, 99% still identify as Hindu. Fully 97% of those raised as Muslims are still Muslims in adulthood. And among Indians who were raised as Christians, 94% are still Christians. Moreover, those who do switch religions tend to cancel each other out; among all Indian adults, for example, 0.7% were raised Hindu but do not currently identify as such, while 0.8% were raised outside of the religion but are now Hindu.
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Interfaith marriage also is rare, and widely frowned upon. In the same survey, 99% of married Hindus, 98% of married Muslims and 95% of married Christians say they have a spouse of the same faith. Similar shares of Hindus and Muslims, as well as 92% of Christians, say their spouse was also raised in their current religion. Furthermore, 82% of Indians say that it is at least somewhat important to prevent women in their community from marrying someone of another religion, and 81% said the same for men, including about two-thirds who say each is very important.
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POLYGAMY is NOT a relevant factor for projecting population growth – this is misinformation.
Many people erroneously believe that communities that permit multiple wives (polygamy) grow faster. Most people have a patriarchal view in their head, therefore, they imagine a family led by a male and count the family members while calculating population growth. In a matriarchal view, a person would imagine a woman head and ask the question how many family members exist per family of the woman. In fact what matters is the number of children born per woman and the total number of women in the community; it doesn’t matter whether the woman is married to 1 or 0.5 or 0.01 men (matriarchal view) or 1 man with one wife, one man with two wives or one man with 100 wives (patriarchal view) – BOTH ARE SAME. Generally in all communities, there are equal number of males and females. So if few males take many wives, there will be many males without wives at any point of time. This does not in any way alter the fact that the population will only grow depending upon the average number of children born per woman x total number of women. Since the ratio of men and women is likely same across all religions, what really matters is the TFR difference between the religions. See the link below about Ziona family picture – 39 wives or 1/39 Husband?
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TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
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TFR is the average number of children born per woman of child bearing age. TFR of 2.1 IN A GROUP is considered replacement level, i.e. the population remains steady (additions equal deaths) – Experts agree that today, TFR higher than 2.1 would result in population increasing over time and lower than 2.1 would result in population declining over time.
According to UN, India’s TFR has been steadily reducing and it has now touched 2.1. For Hindus and Muslims in India, the migration and conversion are negligible, the differences in longevity are also negligible, therefore, future population growth of Hindus and Muslims will be determined by their respective TFRs over time.
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TFR Religion wise in Table 4.2 Page#124 of Vol I
Hindu TFR = 1.94; Muslim TFR (highest) = 2.36; Jain TFR (lowest) = 1.60
State and UT wise TFR Table 4.3 page#125 of Volume I
Muslims high proportion States J&K TFR = 1.41; Kerala TFR = 1.79; WB TFR = 1.64
Hindu high proportion States UP TFR = 2.35; Bihar TFR = 2.98
Per capita income rather than religion would explain the above differences in TFR
Per capita income rather than religion would explain the above differences in TFR
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The FUTURE: As per the TOI article from which above population figures for India are quoted, India’s population is likely to peak at 1.6 Billion in 2045-50; Muslims share will peak at 18% and Hindus will still be the majority at 77%.
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So it is a myth that Muslims will overrun Hindus in India – this will never happen. Though the TFR of Hindus is slightly lower than that of Muslims at present, the rate of decline of Muslim’s TFR is higher than that of Hindus. Therefore, the two TFRs will level up or it is possible that Muslims TFR may decline below that of Hindus.
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TOI article of 10-Jun-22 written by Rohan Rohit, Editor of TOI and ET is included in the following note (the excellent article explains the methodologies used for projection and it is worth a read). Also included are latest State wise TFR figures and Hindu Muslim Population shares as per 2011 Census. The 2021 Census was not conducted due to pandemic.
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The above are just two of viral WhatsApp messages tsunami in India that is created and sustained by the digital army of BJP.
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Scroll down to the amazing Ziona family picture in this note:
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TFR in MENA & N. AFRICA regions has already declined to about the replacement level.
UAE is an affluent Muslim country – its TFR (in 2021) is down to 1.5! Yemen is a poor Muslim country – its TFR (in 2021) is 3.8.
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BEST & WORST NEWS:
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World will be a better place without religion. Therefore, it is worth noting that the importance of religion and religiosity is declining rapidly with enlightenment. The fastest growing group in the world today, after “Islamists” (followers of Islam) is that of atheists and the irreligious – i.e. unaffiliated people. It is certain that with reducing poverty in the “Islamists” group, their TFR will decline and then the highest rate of growth will be that of “unaffiliated group” and it is this group which will be the dominant one before the end of 21st Century. Bad news is that before that happens, the human race could suffer a cataclysmic catastrophe if it does not learn to avoid a nuclear war or if it continues to degrade the environment and crosses the tipping point beyond which climate change becomes unmanageable: Read about the doomsday clock at the link below in RELATED articles. RATHER THAN WORRY ABOUT ISLAMISTS TAKING OVER THE WORLD WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT SAVING ORGANISED HUMANITY WHICH IS FACING AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT!
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Unaffiliated group is likely to become the fastest growing one after the Islamists in poor countries are lifted above the abject poverty line.
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Twenty most atheist countries of world (%’s vary from 27% to 52% – economically well off tend to become atheists): Source (26-Apr-23): https://shorturl.at/hyEO1
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====== DOOMSDAY CLOCK =======
Humans worst instincts are overtaking the world:
There are more important existential issues than Hindu – Muslim population growths. Today is the most dangerous moment in history – 90 seconds to midnight on the doomsday clock of atomic scientists reminds us of the danger.
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